Azerbaijan is laying the groundwork for potential military aggression against Armenia, warned Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in an article published on Armenpress on Monday.
“The official narrative of the Republic of Azerbaijan is increasingly focusing on the proposition that Armenia is arming itself, preparing to attack Azerbaijan, and that therefore, Azerbaijan has the right to defend itself and take preventive measures,” said Pashinyan.
He clarified that this Azerbaijani narrative could have two potential origins: either Baku genuinely believes that Armenia intends to attack or it is laying the groundwork for its own military aggression.
Pashinyan Denies Azerbaijani Claims of Armenian Aggression
Azerbaijan may be “trying to create a foundation” for another military aggression against Armenia, Pashinyan warned, noting that Baku’s escalating rhetoric and accusations serve as justification for potential offensive actions.
“To restate these propositions of Azerbaijani narrative in shorter and simpler terms, it all comes down to the following: Armenia is purportedly preparing to attack Azerbaijan, therefore it is better for Azerbaijan to attack Armenia as a preventive measure,” Pashinyan wrote.
He emphasized that this narrative can only have two possible origins: either Azerbaijan genuinely believes Armenia intends to attack, or it is fabricating these claims to justify its own future aggression. “In both cases, the basic premise is Azerbaijan’s claim about Armenia’s intention to attack Azerbaijan,” he stated.
Pashinyan pointed to Azerbaijan’s “aggressive rhetoric,” billion-dollar military procurement, and the promotion of the so-called ‘Western Azerbaijan’ narrative, which describes large parts of Armenia’s internationally recognized sovereign territory as lands “presently under the control of the Republic of Armenia.” He warned that these statements, combined with ongoing military buildup and actions, pose real threats to Armenia’s security.
Armenia’s Recognition of Azerbaijan’s Sovereignty
Pashinyan firmly rejected Azerbaijani accusations that Armenia is planning to attack, stating that Armenia has left no room for ambiguity in its peaceful stance. He reiterated that Armenia fully recognizes Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity under the 2022 Prague Agreement and the Alma-Ata Declaration, which confirmed that both countries acknowledge each other’s Soviet-era borders.
“The Republic of Armenia recognizes the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Azerbaijan over the territory of the Azerbaijan SSR, and the Republic of Azerbaijan recognizes the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Armenia over the territory of the Armenian SSR,” Pashinyan wrote.
He further emphasized that Armenia has no military objective to retake its occupied territories, despite more than 200 square kilometers of Armenian land currently being under Azerbaijani control following Baku’s incursions in 2021 and 2022. Instead, he insisted that the issue will be resolved through the demarcation process, as outlined in the agreement.
“Therefore, the claims about Armenia’s intention to attack Azerbaijan are simply made-up,” he added.
Armenia’s Military Reforms & Azerbaijani Threats
Pashinyan reiterated that Armenia is reforming its army solely for the purpose of defending its internationally recognized territorial integrity and sovereignty, which includes its right under international law. He emphasized that Armenia has no intention, plan, or goal for military action against Azerbaijan, but that security threats continue to emanate from Azerbaijan.
He pointed to Azerbaijan’s ongoing aggressive rhetoric, its billion-dollar arms procurement, and its promotion of the so-called “Western Azerbaijan” narrative, which is officially endorsed at the highest levels of Azerbaijani leadership. This narrative, enshrined in the founding documents of an organization bearing the same name, refers to about 60% of Armenia’s sovereign territory as “territories presently under the control of the Republic of Armenia.”
Pashinyan also cited a staged trial taking place in Baku, further illustrating the ongoing efforts by Azerbaijan to undermine Armenia’s sovereignty and security.
“Now, let us see this in combination with the staged trial taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan’s billion-dollar procurement of weapons, and official Baku’s aggressive rhetoric, only to make it clear that real threats are being generated in Azerbaijan against the security of the Republic of Armenia,” he wrote.
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Path to Peace & Ongoing Negotiations
Pashinyan reiterated that the peace agreement is largely finalized, with the agreed articles resolving the issue of territorial claims between Armenia and Azerbaijan, both now and in the future. He stressed that signing the agreement would permanently close the door to any disputes”a principle established in Prague”and emphasized that Armenia has already submitted written proposals on reciprocal arms control, border incident investigations, and railway transit routes. He stated that Armenia awaits Azerbaijan’s response on these issues.
He also noted that the demarcation commissions of both countries are functioning constructively, and a recent meeting between the Interagency Commission for Prisoners of War, Hostages, and Missing Persons of Armenia and Azerbaijan signals a step forward in dialogue.
“All of this means that there are no prerequisites for escalation in the region, and, moreover, all the prerequisites for peace have been put in place. It is necessary to abandon staged actions and a policy of staging escalations, and to establish institutional peace,” Pashinyan wrote. He emphasized that Armenia is fully committed to this path and will not divert from it, rejecting provocations aimed at destabilizing the region.
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Aliyev’s Escalatory Rhetoric & Opposition Response
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev implicitly threatened such military action a month ago, branding Armenia as a “fascist” state and complaining about Yerevan’s reluctance to open an extraterritorial land corridor to Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave. Pashinyan responded at the time by signaling readiness for more concessions to Baku, including dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group on Artsakh. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry dismissed his overtures.
Pashinyan stressed again on Monday that Armenia unconditionally recognizes Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and has no “plan, intention, or goal for any military action against Azerbaijan.” He reiterated that Yerevan will not even use force to try to liberate more than 200 square kilometers of Armenian territory occupied by Azerbaijani forces in 2021 and 2022.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has continued to impose multiple preconditions on signing a peace agreement, including demanding changes to Armenia’s constitution.
Armenian opposition figures argue that Pashinyan’s appeasement policy is emboldening Azerbaijan to make further demands, increasing the likelihood of another military conflict.
Opposition MP Artur Khachatryan criticized the government’s approach, stating: “What Pashinyan says is, ‘Look, we’ve given you what you demanded. What else do you want? We are ready to concede everything.’ Contrary to these authorities’ assurances that we are negotiating in good faith and moving towards peace, Azerbaijan is threatening Armenia with war.”
The leader of the ruling Civil Contract parliamentary faction, Hayk Konjoryan, declined to comment on whether Pashinyan’s remarks indicate that the peace process has reached a deadlock.
