Three days after Armenia’s parliamentary elections, a widening geopolitical split has emerged over the vote’s legitimacy and Armenia’s foreign policy direction. While Moscow escalates political and economic pressure, Brussels has moved to publicly congratulate and endorse the electoral process, framing it as part of Armenia’s continued democratic trajectory.
The Kremlin is withholding Putin’s congratulations and a planned meeting with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan until final results are published, citing “numerous irregularities,” while Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov demanded Armenia quickly choose between the EU and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union and announced that the CSTO will weigh penalties over Armenia’s unpaid dues, ranging up to expulsion. With sweeping restrictions on Armenian exports still in place and Moscow accusing Brussels of interfering in the election, Armenian officials brushed off the pressure and said the country’s European course stands.
Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission is expected to publish final results on June 14, with recounts underway in multiple polling stations, including nearly all of Yerevan at the request of opposition-aligned candidates. Preliminary results show Civil Contract at 49.825 percent, Strong Armenia at 23.281 percent, and the Armenia Alliance at 9.934 percent, while Prosperous Armenia remains just below the threshold at 3.996 percent.
Putin’s Silence
Unlike Western and many other world leaders, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet congratulated Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Civil Contract’s win, with the Kremlin stating it is awaiting final results.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow had noted “numerous irregularities” and would only assess the political outcome once the official count is completed. He also left open the question of a potential Putin-Pashinyan meeting, saying no arrangements have yet been confirmed. Peskov added: “There were a lot of obscure moments. We have seen many reports of violations that took place during the elections, so we prefer to wait for the official conclusions.”
Moscow Calls Vote “Repressive” and Questions Legitimacy
Russia’s Foreign Ministry intensified criticism of the electoral process, with spokesperson Maria Zakharova pointing to arrests of opposition figures during the campaign and on election day, describing the environment as an “atmosphere of repression.”
She warned that the post-election situation reflects “a deep split” in Armenian society, a framing that contrasts sharply with Western assessments of the vote.
EU Response: Congratulations and Endorsement of Democratic Path
In contrast, the European Union and its leadership moved quickly to welcome the electoral process and its outcome.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Pashinyan on his party’s performance, praising the legacy of the 2018 Velvet Revolution and Armenia’s continued democratic development. She stressed that Armenia “can count on” the European Union and emphasized deepening cooperation with a “democratic Armenia moving ever closer to Europe.”
Separately, the European Commission and High Representative issued a broader statement congratulating Armenian citizens for their participation in the elections, describing high turnout and civic engagement as evidence of democratic maturity. The EU said the vote reflected Armenia’s commitment to democracy, peace, and regional cooperation, and cited preliminary findings from the OSCE/ODIHR, which noted a polarized but well-organized electoral process within a functioning legal framework.
Brussels also highlighted concerns about what it described as “unprecedented interference” and pressure during the campaign, while reaffirming support for Armenia’s sovereignty and democratic institutions. The EU called on all political actors to respect the results and use legal channels for any disputes, adding that it stands ready to deepen cooperation on reforms, security, and economic development.
EU-or-EAEU Ultimatum from Moscow
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov renewed pressure on Yerevan, arguing that Armenia must quickly choose between integration with the European Union and continued membership in the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), calling the two systems “mutually exclusive.”
“Armenia has already adopted a law on joining the EU; thus, the issue is urgent and must certainly be resolved swiftly,” he said. “It is not because we do not respect the choice of the Armenian people. We want to know this choice.”
He warned that Armenia’s European orientation creates structural contradictions with EAEU obligations, while Moscow and allied states have raised the possibility of economic consequences if Yerevan continues its dual-track policy. Russian officials have also suggested that Armenia’s alignment with the EU could undermine regional economic stability and lead to losses in energy and trade benefits.
CSTO Weighs Penalties, With Possible Expulsion
Following a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Lavrov announced that member states are considering invoking provisions of the bloc’s charter over Armenia’s more than two years of unpaid contributions, without specifying which. Under the charter, Article 25 allows suspension of a debtor state’s quota positions and voting rights, while Article 20 provides a harsher measure for broader non-compliance: potential expulsion from the organization. Lavrov recalled that Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said Yerevan is not paying “because we simply do not participate.”
Armenia suspended its participation in the CSTO in February 2024 after the bloc failed to respond to Azerbaijan’s 2022 incursions into Armenia’s internationally recognized territory, despite its collective-defense commitment. Pashinyan has since described the alliance as a threat to Armenia’s national security, and Armenia has not ruled out a formal withdrawal.
Trade Pressure Intensifies
Moscow has also expanded restrictions on Armenian agricultural exports, with Russian regulatory agencies imposing successive limitations on a wide range of products, including fruits, vegetables, and processed goods.
The measures have been widely interpreted in Yerevan as economic leverage, although Armenian officials maintain that trade channels remain stable and negotiations with Moscow are ongoing.
Moscow Accuses Brussels of Interference
Zakharova also turned on the European Union, dismissing EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas’s statement that Armenians chose a “European future” despite Russian pressure. She cited EU rapid-response missions, high-level delegations in Yerevan at the height of the campaign, and Ursula von der Leyen’s June 4 funding appeal as evidence of interference, and noted that Armenia does not hold EU candidate status. “They artificially presented the parliamentary elections as a fateful step that as if Armenia had to choose between the European Union and Russia,” she said, while insisting that “broad strata” of Armenian society still favor developing ties with Russia.
EU Expands Presence in Armenia
Amid rising tensions, the European Union appointed Romanian diplomat Cosmin George Dinescu, who previously led the bloc’s mission in Moldova, as head of its newly established Partnership Mission in Armenia, beginning June 11. Created at Yerevan’s request, the mission is tasked with supporting cybersecurity resilience, countering disinformation, and strengthening financial transparency systems. It operates alongside the existing EU monitoring mission deployed in 2023, marking a steady expansion of EU institutional engagement in Armenia.
Yerevan’s Response
Armenian officials have largely downplayed the pressure, insisting the elections were free and legitimate and that Armenia’s foreign policy remains sovereign. Health Minister Anahit Avanesyan, asked about Moscow’s refusal to congratulate and its fraud allegations, said “the people accepted the election results as free, fair, transparent elections,” and expressed confidence that “the congratulations will continue.” On Lavrov’s demands, she said Pashinyan and the foreign minister “have clearly presented the position of the Republic of Armenia,” adding: “Nothing is delayed.”
Officials also stress that both EU cooperation and regional economic ties remain important, rejecting the framing of a forced binary choice between Moscow and Brussels. Infrastructure Minister David Khudatyan said gas supplies are secured and the risks to the economy are manageable. Pashinyan has reiterated that his government will continue advancing European integration while managing existing economic dependencies with Russia.
