A new survey from the International Republican Institute (IRI) points to a markedly more optimistic public mood in Armenia, with a clear majority of respondents saying the country is moving in the right direction, broad support for eventual European Union membership, Azerbaijan and Turkey named as the leading external threats, the ruling Civil Contract party well ahead of its rivals in vote intention ahead of June’s parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan again the most trusted political figure, and most respondents still naming no politician they trust.
The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in Survey Research by Breavis, represented by IPSC LLC, through computer-assisted telephone interviews carried out between May 5 and May 11, 2026. The sample consisted of 1,511 resident citizens of Armenia and is representative of the population with access to a mobile phone, which excludes roughly 1.7% of adults. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing, and the results were weighted by age, gender, and settlement type using 2023 ARMSTAT data, as well as by educational attainment. The response rate was 16%, and the margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. IRI notes that findings for the Armenia alliance subgroup should be treated with caution because of its small sample size.
Respondents were asked whether Armenia is heading in the right or wrong direction, which political and public figures they trust the most, how they intend to vote in the June parliamentary elections, and a range of questions on foreign policy and European integration.
Country Direction
Asked whether Armenia is heading in the right or wrong direction, 61% of respondents said the country is moving in the right direction, 28% said it is on the wrong path, and 11% said they did not know or declined to answer. The result marks a significant increase in optimism over IRI’s February 2026 survey, when 47% said the country was heading in the right direction and 41% said it was on the wrong path. It is also the highest right direction reading in any IRI Armenia poll since 2019.
Direction by Age
The institute also broke the results down by age, and optimism rose steadily with age. Among respondents aged 18 to 35, 54% said Armenia is moving in the right direction, 33% said it is on the wrong path, and 13% did not know or declined to answer. Among those aged 36 to 55, 62% said the country is on the right track, 26% said it is not, and 12% gave no answer. Among respondents aged 56 and older, 67% said Armenia is moving in the right direction, 24% said the opposite, and 9% did not respond or declined to answer.
Direction by Party Preference
The survey also broke the same question down by the party respondents said they would support, revealing a sharp partisan divide in how Armenians view the country’s trajectory. Among those who said they would vote for the ruling Civil Contract party, 95% said Armenia is heading in the right direction, with only 2% saying it is on the wrong path. The picture was reversed among opposition supporters. Among those backing the Strong Armenia Alliance, just 9% said the country is on the right track while 83% said it is on the wrong path, and among supporters of the Armenia Alliance, 14% said right direction against 86% who said wrong direction. Undecided voters fell in between, at 45% right direction and 32% wrong direction.
Most Trusted Political Figures
Respondents were asked to name the two political or public figures they trust the most. Nikol Pashinyan, who serves as prime minister and chairman of the board of the Civil Contract party, ranked first with a combined 29% trust rating, named first by 27% of respondents and second by 2%. Samvel Karapetyan, chairman of the Strong Armenia Alliance, ranked second with a combined 8%. Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan followed at 5%, and Robert Kocharyan, leader of the Armenia Alliance, received 4%. Several figures drew 3% support, including Gagik Tsarukyan, chairman of the Prosperous Armenia Party, National Assembly President Alen Simonyan, and Aram Sargsyan, chairman of the Republic Party. Gurgen Simonyan, chairman of the Meritocratic Party, and Arman Tatoyan, chairman of the Wings of Unity Party, each received 2%, while 14% of respondents named some other figure.
The most common response, however, was still distrust of the political class as a whole. Forty percent of respondents said they trust no political figure at all, and another 13% declined to answer. Even so, the share who named no one as their most trusted figure has eased from 48% in February to 40%, and Pashinyan’s combined rating has risen over the same period from 20% to 29%.
Vote Intention
Respondents were also asked which party or alliance they would support in the June 7 vote. Civil Contract led the field at 32%, well ahead of any rival, followed by the Strong Armenia Alliance at 6% and the Armenia Alliance at 3%. No other force reached 3%. Among respondents who said they were very likely to vote, Civil Contract’s share rose to 38%, with Strong Armenia at 7% and the Armenia Alliance at 4%. Civil Contract therefore holds a clear lead over its rivals among those who have settled on a choice, though with 23% undecided and 21% declining to answer, a large share of the electorate remained uncommitted less than two weeks before the vote.
Voter Turnout
Reported willingness to vote was high. Seventy-nine percent of respondents said they were very likely to vote in the June 7 elections, 13% said they were somewhat likely, 3% somewhat unlikely, and 5% very unlikely, while fewer than 1% did not know or declined to answer. This marks an increase in expected participation from the February 2026 wave, when 68% said they were very likely to vote, 16% somewhat likely, 6% somewhat unlikely, 9% very unlikely, and 1% unsure or declining to answer.
Elections Timeline and Eligibility
Armenia’s parliamentary elections are scheduled for June 7, 2026. The official campaign period began on May 8 and runs until June 5, and 19 political forces, made up of 17 parties and two alliances, have registered to take part. According to Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission, roughly 2.5 million citizens are eligible to vote.
Seats in the National Assembly are allocated by proportional representation, with a vote threshold of 4% for individual parties and 8% or higher for alliances to enter parliament. The system also includes a stable-majority provision intended to produce a functioning government. If no party or coalition holds a governing majority after the vote, parties are given a short window to form a coalition, and if none emerges, the leading force may be granted additional seats, or a second round may be held between the two strongest forces.
Foreign Policy and Regional Threats
On the question of Armenia’s broader foreign policy course, 36% of respondents said the country should pursue a pro-Western policy while keeping some relations with Russia, and 19% said it should align only with the European Union and the West. A further 21% favored a pro-Russian course that still keeps ties with Western countries, and 6% supported an exclusively pro-Russian policy. Taken together, a combined 55% favored a Western-leaning course and 27% a Russia-leaning one.
Concern over regional threats remained high but continued to ease. Azerbaijan was named by 73% of respondents as the country posing the greatest political threat to Armenia, down from 80% in the February 2026 survey. Turkey followed at 58%, down from 69%, while Russia ranked third at 32%, up slightly from 29%.
European Union
Support for Armenia’s possible accession to the European Union was broad. A combined 75% of respondents backed accession, with 38% saying they strongly support it and 37% saying they somewhat support it. Opposition was limited, at 11% who somewhat oppose accession and 9% who strongly oppose it. Support held up across age groups, though its intensity varied. Among respondents aged 18 to 35, 32% strongly supported accession and 45% somewhat supported it, while among those aged 56 and older 44% strongly supported it and 31% somewhat supported it. Support was also distributed almost evenly across Yerevan, other urban areas, and rural communities.
Among those who support joining the bloc, the most commonly cited benefits were a stronger economy at 17% and visa liberalization at 14%, along with a general sense that membership would help develop the country and strengthen its security and stability. Among those opposed, the most cited concerns were a deterioration of national values at 16%, the prospect of antagonizing Russia at 14%, doubt that the EU would be a reliable partner at 11%, and a potential loss of Armenian national identity at 8%.
