Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev issued new threats of military action against Armenia on Friday, accusing Yerevan of engaging in “dangerous games.” Armenia’s Foreign Ministry swiftly responded, raising concerns that Azerbaijan might be planning to use the upcoming COP-29 conference in Baku as a smokescreen for launching a fresh military aggression against Armenia. These exchanges come amidst renewed peace talks mediated by the U.S., which have yet to yield substantial progress.
In his speech during a visit to occupied Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), Aliyev warned Armenia not to forget the lessons of the 2020 Artsakh war, while the Armenian Foreign Ministry reiterated that it has no aggressive intentions and is committed to peace, but is prepared to defend itself if necessary.
Aliyev’s Threats & Accusations
Aliyev, speaking during his visit to occupied Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), made sharp accusations against Armenia, warning of potential military action. “They should not forget the history of the second Karabakh war,” he said. “They should not forget how they begged for mercy on their knees and how they appealed to Russia at the highest level ten times a day, asking to stop the war. Let them not forget the anti-terror operation [of September 2023 in Karabakh].”
He added, “They should remember that we achieved what we wanted in that geography, without fearing anyone or anything,” signaling that Azerbaijan would not hesitate to resort to military action again if it deemed necessary. This came just over a week after the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers pledged to “put additional efforts” toward peace during U.S.-mediated talks hosted by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in New York.
Aliyev further criticized Blinken and U.S. lawmakers for a letter signed by 60 U.S. legislators, accusing Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing in Artsakh and urging sanctions on Baku. He also targeted France, which has supported Armenia’s military buildup through arms deals. “I also warn Armenia to stop those dangerous games,” he stated. “On one hand, they talk about peace; on the other hand, they arm themselves heavily. Who gives them weapons? France and similar anti-Azerbaijani countries. Why do they provide them with these weapons? No matter how hard they try, they will not achieve anything.”
Armenia’s Foreign Ministry Responds To Aliyev’s Threats
Armenia’s Foreign Ministry (MFA) quickly responded to Aliyev’s remarks. Spokesperson Ani Badalyan rejected any suggestion of aggression on Armenia’s part, reaffirming that “Armenia acquires weapons and military equipment solely to exercise its right to self-defense and to fulfill its obligation to protect its citizens.”
Badalyan also emphasized that “Yerevan has repeatedly, and at the highest levels, announced that it harbors no aggressive intentions toward any of its neighbors, recognizes their territorial integrity, and has no territorial claims.” She noted that Armenia’s defense acquisitions are far outweighed by Azerbaijan’s larger offensive arsenal, a point Aliyev himself has acknowledged publicly.
Additionally, Badalyan reiterated that “the UN Charter grants each country the right to self-defense, and international law obligates every nation to protect its citizens.” She stressed that while some Armenian territories remain occupied by Azerbaijan, “Armenia has no intention or agenda to return these territories by military means,” and instead favors peaceful negotiations through the border delimitation commissions.
Badalyan also underscored that Armenia’s Constitutional Court had confirmed that the regulations governing joint activities with Azerbaijan on border delimitation comply with the Armenian Constitution, rejecting any claims that Armenia harbors territorial ambitions against its neighbors.
Concerns Over COP-29 As A Smokescreen For New Aggression
In a particularly concerning part of her statement, Badalyan raised the issue of the upcoming COP-29 conference, which is set to be hosted by Azerbaijan in Baku. She suggested that Azerbaijan might be planning to use this global event as a “smokescreen for launching a new military aggression against the Republic of Armenia.”
Badalyan asked pointedly, “Now, taking all this into account, here is a question: why is Azerbaijan making those points you emphasized in your question? Is it preparing for aggression against the Republic of Armenia?” She further elaborated, “I believe it is important to get an answer to this question, as it would also help evaluate the opinions that Azerbaijan is planning to use the upcoming COP-29 conference in Baku as a smokescreen for launching a new military aggression against the Republic of Armenia, and to shift the political responsibility for it onto the foreign leaders attending COP-29 in Baku.”
This concern highlights Armenia’s fears that while Azerbaijan hosts international leaders, it may be planning military actions behind the scenes, using the event to deflect global attention from its true intentions.
Commitment To Peace & Azerbaijan’s Contradictory Stance
The MFA also questioned Azerbaijan’s overall commitment to peace, particularly in light of Aliyev’s aggressive rhetoric. “Does Azerbaijan refrain from the agreements to recognize the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Armenia based on the Alma-Ata Declaration?” Badalyan asked, reaffirming Armenia’s commitment to this agreement.
Additionally, Badalyan stressed Armenia’s dedication to the peace process, stating: “Armenia reaffirms its commitment to the Peace Agenda and its readiness to sign the already agreed content with Azerbaijan as a peace treaty, as the Prime Minister of Armenia announced in his remarks at the 79th session of the UN General Assembly.”
Badalyan urged that the focus should be on resolving these issues quickly, stating that both countries should aim to “resolve the issue of signing the Peace Treaty in the shortest period and on negotiating other issues not only in de facto, but also in de jure peace conditions.”
FM Mirzoyan’s Warning & Opposition Concerns
Earlier in the week, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan echoed these concerns, warning that Azerbaijan might be preparing for an invasion of Armenia. Speaking at an international conference in Warsaw, Mirzoyan accused Baku of lacking the “political will” to sign a framework agreement that Yerevan has long sought.
The Azerbaijani side has consistently rejected Armenia’s proposals to finalize such an agreement, instead insisting that Armenia must amend its constitution before any peace deal can be reached. In recent weeks, Aliyev has introduced further conditions for Yerevan, complicating the peace process.
Armenian opposition leaders have also voiced their doubts about Aliyev’s intentions. They argue that the Azerbaijani leader is not genuinely interested in peace but is instead seeking to extract further concessions from Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Opposition figures claim that Pashinyan’s appeasement policy has only emboldened Aliyev to escalate his demands on Armenia.
