Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan remains Armenia’s most trusted political figure, and the ruling Civil Contract party remains the leading electoral force, according to a new IRI survey. At the same time, the poll shows broad distrust of the political class, continued concern over national security and border issues, deep household economic strain, weak confidence in both government and opposition, stronger support for EU integration, and a sharply divided public over the TRIPP declaration.
The survey was conducted by Breavis on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in Survey Research from February 3–13, 2026 through CATI-administered telephone interviews. The sample included 1,506 resident citizens of Armenia and forcibly displaced former residents of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) now living in Armenia, excluding those who had lived in Armenia for fewer than six months. It was weighted by age, gender, settlement type, and education, had a 22% response rate, and carries a margin of error of no more than ±2.5% for the full sample. IRI also notes that some party-based subgroup findings, especially for Kocharyan’s alliance and Prosperous Armenia, should be treated cautiously because of small sample sizes.
Country Direction
When asked whether Armenia is heading in the right or wrong direction, 47% said right direction, 41% said wrong direction, and 11% said they did not know or refused to answer. The result marks a modest improvement from June 2025 and a stronger improvement from September 2024. Older respondents and rural residents were more likely to say Armenia is moving in the right direction, while respondents in urban areas outside Yerevan were more negative.
Main Problems Facing Armenia
National security and border issues remain the most frequently cited national problem at 21%, followed by the economy and unemployment at 18%, and the cost of living and high prices at 11%. Other concerns included low wages at 9%, low pensions and lack of peace at 8% each, poverty, school conditions and education quality, and regional security at 7% each, followed by wrong foreign policy and healthcare issues. Compared with earlier IRI polls, security remains the top issue, but its intensity has dropped sharply from 44% in June 2025 to 21% in February 2026, while economic pressures remain persistent.
Most Trusted Political Figures
Pashinyan ranked first at 20% total trust, including 18% who named him as the most trusted politician and 2% as second most trusted. Samvel Karapetyan ranked second at 10%, Robert Kocharyan third at 5%, and both Gagik Tsarukyan and Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan at 4%. But the clearest trust finding in the survey was broader public alienation: 48% said they trust no politician as their first response, and 63% named no politician overall when first and second responses were combined. Younger respondents were especially likely to say they trust no one.
Government Performance on Key Issues
Among respondents who named a first most important problem facing Armenia, 37% rated the government’s performance positively and 60% negatively. The government’s ratings were especially poor on schools, low wages, poverty, and foreign policy. On the top three issues, the government still generally performed better than the opposition in relative terms, even where public dissatisfaction was high. On national security and border issues, economy and unemployment, and lack of peace, respondents were more likely to rate the opposition poorly or say they did not know how it would perform. The survey suggests not only dissatisfaction with the government, but also weak confidence in the opposition as an alternative.
Household-Level Problems
When respondents were asked about the main problems affecting their own households, economic issues clearly dominated. Economy and unemployment led at 21%, followed by low wages at 19%, cost of living at 13%, poverty at 12%, housing affordability and conditions at 10%, healthcare and low pensions at 9% each. National security was far less prominent at the household level. This was one of the report’s clearest contrasts: Armenia’s national political mood is still shaped by security concerns, but daily life is dominated by economic pressure.
Institutional Satisfaction
The Armed Forces received the strongest institutional rating in the survey, with 74% satisfied and 24% dissatisfied. Satisfaction was also relatively high for the Armenian Apostolic Church and the police. By contrast, many state and political institutions performed much worse, including the Prime Minister’s Office, courts, prosecutor’s office, president’s office, and especially the National Assembly. The Ombudsperson’s Office was more mixed. The poll also found Armenians distinguish between the Armenian Apostolic Church as an institution and its leadership specifically, with the Church itself posting a stronger net score than its leadership.
Government’s Biggest Successes and Failures
Asked about the government’s biggest success in the last six months, respondents most often cited ensuring security and peace at 17%, diversification of foreign policy and road improvements at 9% each, universal health insurance at 8%, army changes and rearmament at 7%, and education improvements at 7%. Yet 32% said the government had no major success, and 17% did not know or refused.
Asked about the government’s biggest failure in the last six months, the top answer was wrong foreign policy or diplomacy at 10%, followed by pressure on clergy at 7%, wrong personnel policy or poor government work at 5%, inflation and rising external debt at 4%, lack of restrictions on the opposition at 4%, lack of border security at 3%, low quality of education at 3%, implementation of TRIPP at 3%, and the continued presence of prisoners in Baku at 3%. Still, 21% said there had been no major failure, while 12% did not know or refused.
Elections and Vote Intent
Sixty-eight percent said they voted in the June 20, 2021 parliamentary elections. Among self-reported voters, 47% said they had voted for Civil Contract and 8% for Kocharyan’s Armenia alliance, though nonresponse on this question was substantial. Looking ahead to June 2026, 68% said they were very likely to vote and 16% somewhat likely. Older respondents were much more likely than younger ones to say they were very likely to vote.
Among all respondents, 24% said they would vote for Civil Contract, 9% for Strong Armenia, 3% for Kocharyan’s alliance, and 3% for Prosperous Armenia, while 30% were undecided, 8% said they would not vote, 5% said they would spoil the ballot, and 9% refused. Among those very likely to vote, Civil Contract rose to 29%, Strong Armenia to 11%, Kocharyan’s alliance to 4%, and Prosperous Armenia to 2%, with 28% still undecided. Civil Contract was stronger among older voters and in rural areas, while its support was weaker among younger voters and in Yerevan.
Among respondents who named a specific vote choice, 69% said they were absolutely sure of their decision, 19% said they were fairly sure, and 12% said they were not sure. Civil Contract voters appeared the firmest in their choice. Among those who said they would not vote, the most common reasons were distrust of all parties or leaders, belief that their vote would not matter, lack of confidence in the electoral process, lack of inspiration from the available parties, and belief that the election was not important. Among those naming a vote choice, the most important determinants were parties’ programs and promises at 29%, past performance at 26%, and leader character at 8%. Army-related issues, healthcare, the economy, foreign policy, and social conditions were all rated as very important by large majorities of likely voters.
Foreign Policy and International Relations
Asked which countries are Armenia’s most important political partners, respondents most often named Russia at 43%, the United States at 42%, Iran at 34%, the European Union at 29%, France at 27%, China at 21%, and Georgia at 18%. Asked which countries pose the greatest political threat to Armenia, 80% named Azerbaijan, 69% Turkey, and 29% Russia. One of the report’s most notable foreign policy findings is that public opinion is no longer centered on a single external pole: Russia still ranks first as a partner, but the United States is nearly tied, while support for deeper ties with the EU, France, and Iran is also significant.
On Armenia’s overall foreign policy course, 17% said the country should be only pro-EU and pro-West, 32% said pro-Western while keeping relations with Russia, 24% said pro-Russian while keeping relations with the EU and the West, and 9% said only pro-Russian. Civil Contract voters were much more Western-leaning, while supporters of Kocharyan’s alliance and Strong Armenia were much more likely to prefer a pro-Russian course that still keeps Western ties.
European Union
Support for Armenia’s possible accession to the European Union was broad. Thirty-three percent strongly supported it and 39% somewhat supported it, for a total of 72% support, while 24% opposed it. In a hypothetical referendum held this coming Sunday, 51% said they would vote to join the EU, 13% would vote against, 32% would not vote, and 4% did not know or refused. Support was stronger among Civil Contract voters and weaker among Kocharyan and Strong Armenia voters.
Among those who would vote to join, the most cited benefits were strengthening the economy at 26%, strengthening security and stability at 14%, visa liberalization at 10%, and developing the country at 10%. Among those who would vote against, the most cited disadvantages were that the EU would not be a reliable partner at 22%, deterioration of national values at 15%, deterioration of Armenian family norms at 12%, weakening of security at 6%, and angering Russia at 5%.
TRIPP Declaration
The survey found the public nearly evenly split on the August 8, 2025 Armenia-Azerbaijan-U.S. declaration known as TRIPP. Forty-four percent said they support its implementation, while 47% oppose it. Support was overwhelmingly concentrated among Civil Contract voters, while Strong Armenia, Kocharyan alliance, and Prosperous Armenia voters were far more opposed.
Among supporters, the top perceived benefits were economic growth at 30%, establishing peace at 19%, breaking the blockade at 16%, increasing trade at 14%, and ensuring security at 10%. Among opponents, the main perceived disadvantages were lack of security at 20%, free entry of citizens of enemy countries at 16%, danger of losing Syunik at 7%, new territorial claims by Azerbaijan at 5%, and Armenia not exercising control over the road at 5%. In other words, supporters mostly view TRIPP through an economic and peace lens, while opponents view it through security, sovereignty, and territorial risk.
Media and Political Engagement
Two-thirds of respondents said they are very or somewhat interested in politics. Public TV was the most trusted media source for political information at 30% total mentions, followed by Armenia TV at 19%, Shant TV and Azatutyun at 14% each, and 5 TV at 7%. At the same time, 17% said they trust no outlet. Public TV’s advantage was much stronger among respondents who believe Armenia is moving in the right direction. On social media, Facebook remained the dominant platform for political information at 55%, followed by YouTube at 21%, Instagram at 16%, Telegram at 14%, and TikTok at 7%.
Conclusion
The IRI survey shows a country that is somewhat more optimistic than before, but still deeply distrustful of its political class. Pashinyan remains the most trusted politician and Civil Contract remains the leading electoral force, yet the most common trust response is still “none,” and large parts of the electorate remain undecided or disengaged. National security and border issues still dominate at the national level, but economic pressure weighs more heavily inside households. The public is dissatisfied with the government on major issues, but it is not convinced the opposition would do better. On foreign policy, Armenians increasingly favor a diversified course, with strong support for closer Western ties and broad support in principle for EU accession, while TRIPP stands out as one of the most polarizing issues in the entire poll.
