Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has assessed that military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026 is “highly unlikely” following the Washington agreements of August 8, 2025, while the prospects for institutionalized peace have increased, according to its 2026 External Security Risks report published by Armenpress.
The report cites intensive high-level negotiations in 2025, the Washington Declaration, and the initialing of the Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Inter-State Relations, achieved with the active involvement of U.S. President Donald J. Trump, as factors reducing the risk of renewed conflict. Even local incidents not motivated by military-political objectives are considered unlikely.
“2026 is expected to see progress in border delimitation and demarcation, bilateral trade, humanitarian issues, dialogue between the two societies, and unblocking of regional infrastructure,” the Service said. At the same time, external actors seeking to preserve or expand their influence in the region may attempt to disrupt these processes, particularly through narratives that question Armenia’s sovereignty and threaten connectivity projects.
The annual report highlighted Azerbaijan’s promotion of the so-called “western Azerbaijan” concept and the “return of western Azerbaijanis” as a major long-term risk to peace-building. Intelligence indicates that these narratives have intensified since the Washington Declaration, posing substantial risks for regional stability. Monitoring the true intent behind these narratives will remain a priority in 2026.
Separately, the report noted that Armenia is “almost certainly” not expected to unfreeze its membership in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in 2026. The Service said this continues to pose a reputational challenge for the bloc, following Armenia’s decision to freeze participation in February 2024 due to the CSTO’s failure to fulfill its obligations.
The report also warned that hybrid activities targeting Armenia are likely to intensify in 2026. These operations aim to undermine peace, manipulate public opinion, and destabilize political processes, including by exploiting sensitivities related to Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh).
Tools used by state and non-state actors include:
- Cyber Operations: Targeting critical infrastructure, government platforms, transport, and energy grids.
- Malign Information Operations: Spreading fake, distorted, or AI-generated content, combining truth and falsehoods, especially in the pre-election period.
- Activation of Agents and Influence Networks: Mobilizing political, business, religious, and cultural actors, as well as youth and activist groups, to interfere in domestic politics.
- Economic and Energy Pressure: Artificial trade barriers, legal harassment of exporters, selective migration measures, and other tactics to create discontent.
- Other Pressure Tactics: Targeting officials and their families, promoting favorable political figures, and undermining Armenia’s international standing during major events.
The Service defines hybrid warfare as the coordinated use of military, economic, and information tools to create uncertainty, paralyze institutions, sway public opinion, and complicate attribution, often combining multiple methods depending on the objective.
Established on October 4, 2023, the FIS is tasked with forecasting, preventing, countering, and protecting against external threats to Armenia by providing political decision-makers with reliable and actionable intelligence and conducting special activities.
The agency stresses its role as a politically impartial institution committed to safeguarding the democratic order of the Republic of Armenia.
